Factors Hindering the End of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Abstract

The author, taking an unusual stance that differs from prevailing views, analyzes the factors preventing the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War, namely, that Europe does not want peaceful coexistence with Russia. – The outcome of anti-Russian sanctions (restrictions on the Kremlin's resources or unprecedented economic self-harm by the EU) is uncertain. – Successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries eliminate any willingness on Ukraine's part to compromise. – Ukraine's senseless insistence on retaining part of the Donbas. – Russia's unpredictable reaction to Ukrainian attacks on its oil refining facilities. After analyzing the above factors, the author draws the following main conclusions: 1) The Ukrainian drone and missile attacks against Russian oil refineries, along with the latest anti-Russian sanctions, already pose a serious threat to Russia, even though Ukraine's strategy is pointless because it is counterproductive: it does not lead to the liberation of occupied territories, and it only provokes increasingly forceful Russian countermeasures. 2) In the near future, the only option is to continue this senseless war of attrition, with a relatively easy-to-predict outcome. Even with Western support, Ukraine cannot produce enough unmanned aerial vehicles to destroy thousands of Russian strategic targets to achieve military victory. Still, Russia is capable of producing enough to raze Ukraine's major cities' strategically important facilities, as well as Ukraine's ports, to the ground.